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Mladost Medoševac vs Car Konstantin — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Mladost Medoševac
Mladost Medoševac
FT
0 – 2
Car Konstantin
Car Konstantin
5/19/2021Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 35Stadion FK Medoševac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mladost Medoševac53%
×Draw23%
Car Konstantin24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Medoševac
1.84
Car Konstantin
1.15

Mladost Medoševac creates 60% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 42 away

creates per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.32
Car Konstantin
1.19

allows per match

Mladost Medoševac
1.11
Car Konstantin
2.36

finishing

Mladost Medoševac+0.00on par
Car Konstantin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Medoševac ↓

Car Konstantin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Mladost Medoševac or draw
76%
Mladost Medoševac or Car Konstantin
77%
Draw or Car Konstantin
47%

Winning margin

Mladost Medoševac wins by 2+
30%
Car Konstantin wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mladost Medoševac 1+ goals
84%
Mladost Medoševac 2+ goals
55%
Mladost Medoševac 3+ goals
28%
Car Konstantin 1+ goals
68%
Car Konstantin 2+ goals
32%
Car Konstantin 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mladost Medoševac (draw refunded)
69%
Car Konstantin (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Medoševac at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Car Konstantin away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.36 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Medoševac attack 1.32 + Car Konstantin defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.84

Car Konstantin attack 1.19 + Mladost Medoševac defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mladost Medoševac scores more
53%
level
23%
Car Konstantin scores more
24%

Mladost Medoševac at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mladost Medoševac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - East: Mladost Medoševac 0–2 Car Konstantin

Car Konstantin beat Mladost Medoševac 2-0 in Srpska Liga - East on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Medoševac in Medoševac.