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Mladost Lucani vs Proleter Novi SAD — Super Liga 2018

Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
9/22/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 9Stadion Mladosti u Lučanima (Lučani)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Mladost Lucani48%
×Draw27%
Proleter Novi SAD26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Lucani
1.45
Proleter Novi SAD
0.99

Mladost Lucani creates 46% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 72 away

creates per match

Mladost Lucani
1.34
Proleter Novi SAD
0.81

allows per match

Mladost Lucani
1.17
Proleter Novi SAD
1.56

finishing

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par
Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lucani ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mladost Lucani or draw
74%
Mladost Lucani or Proleter Novi SAD
73%
Draw or Proleter Novi SAD
52%

Winning margin

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
24%
Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
77%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
42%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
18%
Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
63%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
26%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
65%
Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lucani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 143 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lucani attack 1.34 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Proleter Novi SAD attack 0.81 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mladost Lucani scores more
48%
level
27%
Proleter Novi SAD scores more
26%

Mladost Lucani at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mladost Lucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Mladost Lucani 1–0 Proleter Novi SAD

Mladost Lucani beat Proleter Novi SAD 1-0 in Super Liga on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Mladosti u Lučanima (Lučani).