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Mladost Lucani vs Petrovac — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Petrovac
Petrovac
Unknown 25'
6/22/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Mladost Lucani43%
×Draw31%
Petrovac27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Lucani
1.14
Petrovac
0.83

Mladost Lucani creates 37% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mladost Lucani
1.27
Petrovac
0.40

allows per match

Mladost Lucani
1.27
Petrovac
1.00

finishing

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par
Petrovac+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lucani ↓

Petrovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mladost Lucani or draw
73%
Mladost Lucani or Petrovac
69%
Draw or Petrovac
57%

Winning margin

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
18%
Petrovac wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
68%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
32%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
11%
Petrovac 1+ goals
56%
Petrovac 2+ goals
20%
Petrovac 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
62%
Petrovac (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lucani at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Petrovac away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lucani attack 1.27 + Petrovac defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.14

Petrovac attack 0.40 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mladost Lucani scores more
43%
level
31%
Petrovac scores more
27%

Mladost Lucani at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mladost Lucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
Mladost
Petrovac
Nenad Mijailovic
Manager: Nenad Mijailovic
Zdravko Dragicevic
Manager: Zdravko Dragicevic

Match Recap: Mladost Lucani vs Petrovac

Mladost Lucani beat Petrovac 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 22, 2026.

Goals: ? (25').