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Mladost Lucani vs FK Vozdovac — Super Liga 2026

Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FK Vozdovac
FK Vozdovac
2/26/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 22Mladost Stadium Lučani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Mladost Lucani48%
×Draw26%
FK Vozdovac26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Lucani
1.50
FK Vozdovac
1.03

Mladost Lucani creates 46% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 109 away

creates per match

Mladost Lucani
1.34
FK Vozdovac
0.89

allows per match

Mladost Lucani
1.17
FK Vozdovac
1.65

finishing

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par
FK Vozdovac+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lucani ↓

FK Vozdovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mladost Lucani or draw
74%
Mladost Lucani or FK Vozdovac
74%
Draw or FK Vozdovac
52%

Winning margin

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
24%
FK Vozdovac wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
78%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
44%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
19%
FK Vozdovac 1+ goals
64%
FK Vozdovac 2+ goals
28%
FK Vozdovac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
65%
FK Vozdovac (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lucani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 143 matches

FK Vozdovac away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.65 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lucani attack 1.34 + FK Vozdovac defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.50

FK Vozdovac attack 0.89 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mladost Lucani scores more
48%
level
26%
FK Vozdovac scores more
26%

Mladost Lucani at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mladost Lucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Lucani vs FK Vozdovac

Mladost Lucani beat FK Vozdovac 2-0 in Super Liga on February 26, 2024.

The match was played at Mladost Stadium Lučani in Lučani.