Mladost Lucani 0–0 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Mladost Lucani

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

11/4/2024

Super Liga · Round 14Mladost Stadium Lučani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 143+ matches

Mladost Lucani46%

×Draw26%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost LucaniExpected goals in this matchFK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.07

Mladost Lucani

1.44

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1.07

Mladost Lucani creates 35% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 145 away

1.34

creates per match

0.97

1.17

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Mladost Lucani

1.34

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

0.97

allows per match

Mladost Lucani

1.17

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lucani ↓

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Mladost Lucani or draw

72%

Mladost Lucani or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

74%

Draw or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

54%

Winning margin

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+

22%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals

76%

Mladost Lucani 2+ goals

42%

Mladost Lucani 3+ goals

18%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals

66%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals

29%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)

62%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lucani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 143 matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lucani attack 1.34 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 0.97 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mladost Lucani scores more

46%

level

26%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more

28%

Mladost Lucani at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mladost Lucani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff