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Mladost Lucani vs FK Crvena Zvezda — Super Liga 2026

Mladost Lucani
Mladost Lucani
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
11/30/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 17Mladost Stadium Lučani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Mladost Lucani21%
×Draw23%
FK Crvena Zvezda56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Lucani
1.05
FK Crvena Zvezda
1.85

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 76% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 142 away

creates per match

Mladost Lucani
1.34
FK Crvena Zvezda
2.53

allows per match

Mladost Lucani
1.17
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.76

finishing

Mladost Lucani+0.00on par
FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lucani ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mladost Lucani or draw
44%
Mladost Lucani or FK Crvena Zvezda
77%
Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda
79%

Winning margin

Mladost Lucani wins by 2+
8%
FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Mladost Lucani 1+ goals
65%
Mladost Lucani 2+ goals
28%
Mladost Lucani 3+ goals
9%
FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
84%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
55%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lucani (draw refunded)
28%
FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lucani at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.17 · 143 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lucani attack 1.34 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.05

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.53 + Mladost Lucani defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Mladost Lucani scores more
21%
level
23%
FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
56%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Mladost Lucani 0–2 FK Crvena Zvezda

FK Crvena Zvezda beat Mladost Lucani 2-0 in Super Liga on November 30, 2024.

The match was played at Mladost Stadium Lučani in Lučani.