Mladost Lješkopolje 1–1 Iskra: Result & Stats

Mladost Lješkopolje

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Iskra

5/10/2025

Second League · Round 33DG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Mladost Lješkopolje41%

×Draw27%

Iskra31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost LješkopoljeExpected goals in this matchIskra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.31

Iskra

1.10

Mladost Lješkopolje creates 19% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 52 away

1.46

creates per match

1.08

1.13

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.46

Iskra

1.08

allows per match

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.13

Iskra

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Lješkopolje ↓

Iskra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Mladost Lješkopolje or draw

69%

Mladost Lješkopolje or Iskra

73%

Draw or Iskra

59%

Winning margin

Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+

19%

Iskra wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals

73%

Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals

38%

Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals

14%

Iskra 1+ goals

67%

Iskra 2+ goals

30%

Iskra 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)

57%

Iskra (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Lješkopolje at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.13 · 69 matches

Iskra away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.17 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.46 + Iskra defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Iskra attack 1.08 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mladost Lješkopolje scores more

41%

level

27%

Iskra scores more

31%

Mladost Lješkopolje at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mladost Lješkopolje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff