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Mladosť Kalša vs Spišské Podhradie — 3. liga - East 2020

Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
FT
5 – 1
Spišské Podhradie
Spišské Podhradie
8/1/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 1Sport Club Mladosť Kalša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mladosť Kalša65%
×Draw17%
Spišské Podhradie17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladosť Kalša
2.67
Spišské Podhradie
1.33

Mladosť Kalša creates 101% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 65 away

creates per match

Mladosť Kalša
2.48
Spišské Podhradie
0.80

allows per match

Mladosť Kalša
1.87
Spišské Podhradie
2.86

finishing

Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par
Spišské Podhradie+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladosť Kalša ↓

Spišské Podhradie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Mladosť Kalša or draw
83%
Mladosť Kalša or Spišské Podhradie
83%
Draw or Spišské Podhradie
35%

Winning margin

Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
44%
Spišské Podhradie wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
93%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
74%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
49%
Spišské Podhradie 1+ goals
74%
Spišské Podhradie 2+ goals
38%
Spišské Podhradie 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
79%
Spišské Podhradie (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladosť Kalša at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Spišské Podhradie away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.86 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladosť Kalša attack 2.48 + Spišské Podhradie defence 2.86 → ÷2 → 2.67

Spišské Podhradie attack 0.80 + Mladosť Kalša defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Mladosť Kalša scores more
65%
level
17%
Spišské Podhradie scores more
17%

Mladosť Kalša at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Mladosť Kalša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Mladosť Kalša 5–1 Spišské Podhradie

Mladosť Kalša beat Spišské Podhradie 5-1 in 3. liga - East on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Sport Club Mladosť Kalša in Kalša.