Mladosť Kalša 2–4 Spišská Nová Ves: Result & Stats

Mladosť Kalša

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Spišská Nová Ves

6/5/2022

3. liga - East · East - 28Sport Club Mladosť Kalša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mladosť Kalša37%

×Draw22%

Spišská Nová Ves41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladosť KalšaExpected goals in this matchSpišská Nová Ves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.80

Mladosť Kalša

1.70

Spišská Nová Ves

1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 64 away

2.48

creates per match

1.73

1.87

allows per match

0.91

creates per match

Mladosť Kalša

2.48

Spišská Nová Ves

1.73

allows per match

Mladosť Kalša

1.87

Spišská Nová Ves

0.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Spišská Nová Ves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladosť Kalša ↓

Spišská Nová Ves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Mladosť Kalša or draw

59%

Mladosť Kalša or Spišská Nová Ves

78%

Draw or Spišská Nová Ves

63%

Winning margin

Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+

19%

Spišská Nová Ves wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals

82%

Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals

51%

Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals

24%

Spišská Nová Ves 1+ goals

83%

Spišská Nová Ves 2+ goals

54%

Spišská Nová Ves 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)

47%

Spišská Nová Ves (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladosť Kalša at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Spišská Nová Ves away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladosť Kalša attack 2.48 + Spišská Nová Ves defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.70

Spišská Nová Ves attack 1.73 + Mladosť Kalša defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mladosť Kalša scores more

37%

level

22%

Spišská Nová Ves scores more

41%

Spišská Nová Ves at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spišská Nová Ves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff