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Mladosť Kalša vs Slovan Giraltovce — 3. liga - East 2020

Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Slovan Giraltovce
Slovan Giraltovce
3/20/20223. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 17Sport Club Mladosť Kalša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mladosť Kalša64%
×Draw19%
Slovan Giraltovce18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladosť Kalša
2.41
Slovan Giraltovce
1.19

Mladosť Kalša creates 103% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 38 away

creates per match

Mladosť Kalša
2.48
Slovan Giraltovce
0.50

allows per match

Mladosť Kalša
1.87
Slovan Giraltovce
2.34

finishing

Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par
Slovan Giraltovce+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladosť Kalša ↓

Slovan Giraltovce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Mladosť Kalša or draw
82%
Mladosť Kalša or Slovan Giraltovce
81%
Draw or Slovan Giraltovce
36%

Winning margin

Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
42%
Slovan Giraltovce wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
91%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
69%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
43%
Slovan Giraltovce 1+ goals
70%
Slovan Giraltovce 2+ goals
33%
Slovan Giraltovce 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
78%
Slovan Giraltovce (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladosť Kalša at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Slovan Giraltovce away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladosť Kalša attack 2.48 + Slovan Giraltovce defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.41

Slovan Giraltovce attack 0.50 + Mladosť Kalša defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Mladosť Kalša scores more
64%
level
19%
Slovan Giraltovce scores more
18%

Mladosť Kalša at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Mladosť Kalša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Mladosť Kalša 2–1 Slovan Giraltovce

Mladosť Kalša beat Slovan Giraltovce 2-1 in 3. liga - East on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Sport Club Mladosť Kalša in Kalša.