Mladosť Kalša 1–2 Slávia TU Košice: Result & Stats

Mladosť Kalša

FT

1 – 2

Slávia TU Košice

8/16/2020

3. liga - East · East - 4Sport Club Mladosť Kalša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mladosť Kalša46%

×Draw22%

Slávia TU Košice33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladosť KalšaExpected goals in this matchSlávia TU Košice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.66

Mladosť Kalša

2.00

Slávia TU Košice

1.66

Mladosť Kalša creates 20% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 66 away

2.48

creates per match

1.45

1.87

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Mladosť Kalša

2.48

Slávia TU Košice

1.45

allows per match

Mladosť Kalša

1.87

Slávia TU Košice

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par

Slávia TU Košice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladosť Kalša ↓

Slávia TU Košice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Mladosť Kalša or draw

67%

Mladosť Kalša or Slávia TU Košice

78%

Draw or Slávia TU Košice

54%

Winning margin

Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+

26%

Slávia TU Košice wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals

86%

Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals

59%

Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals

32%

Slávia TU Košice 1+ goals

81%

Slávia TU Košice 2+ goals

49%

Slávia TU Košice 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)

59%

Slávia TU Košice (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladosť Kalša at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Slávia TU Košice away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladosť Kalša attack 2.48 + Slávia TU Košice defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 2.00

Slávia TU Košice attack 1.45 + Mladosť Kalša defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mladosť Kalša scores more

46%

level

22%

Slávia TU Košice scores more

33%

Mladosť Kalša at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mladosť Kalša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff