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Mladosť Kalša vs Poprad — 3. liga - East 2020

Mladosť Kalša
Mladosť Kalša
FT
1 – 1
Poprad
Poprad
10/24/20213. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 14Sport Club Mladosť Kalša

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Mladosť Kalša52%
×Draw21%
Poprad27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladosť Kalša
2.19
Poprad
1.54

Mladosť Kalša creates 42% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 58 away

creates per match

Mladosť Kalša
2.48
Poprad
1.22

allows per match

Mladosť Kalša
1.87
Poprad
1.91

finishing

Mladosť Kalša+0.00on par
Poprad+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladosť Kalša ↓

Poprad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Mladosť Kalša or draw
73%
Mladosť Kalša or Poprad
79%
Draw or Poprad
48%

Winning margin

Mladosť Kalša wins by 2+
31%
Poprad wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mladosť Kalša 1+ goals
89%
Mladosť Kalša 2+ goals
64%
Mladosť Kalša 3+ goals
37%
Poprad 1+ goals
79%
Poprad 2+ goals
45%
Poprad 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Mladosť Kalša (draw refunded)
66%
Poprad (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladosť Kalša at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

Poprad away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladosť Kalša attack 2.48 + Poprad defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.19

Poprad attack 1.22 + Mladosť Kalša defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mladosť Kalša scores more
52%
level
21%
Poprad scores more
27%

Mladosť Kalša at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mladosť Kalša will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladosť Kalša vs Poprad

Mladosť Kalša and Poprad drew 1-1 in 3. liga - East on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Sport Club Mladosť Kalša in Kalša.