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Mladost Doboj Kakanj vs Velež — Premijer Liga 2019

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Velež
Velež
9/19/2020Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 8MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj31%
×Draw28%
Velež41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.08
Velež
1.29

Velež creates 19% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 111 away

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.00
Velež
1.07

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.52
Velež
1.16

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par
Velež+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Velež →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw
59%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Velež
72%
Draw or Velež
69%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
12%
Velež wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
66%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
29%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
10%
Velež 1+ goals
72%
Velež 2+ goals
37%
Velež 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
43%
Velež (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

Velež away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.16 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.00 + Velež defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Velež attack 1.07 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
31%
level
28%
Velež scores more
41%

Velež at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Velež will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1–2 Velež

Velež beat Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2-1 in Premijer Liga on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at MGM Farm Arena in Kakanj.