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Mladost Doboj Kakanj vs TOŠK Tešanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
FT
2 – 4
TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
9/4/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 4MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj40%
×Draw25%
TOŠK Tešanj35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.49
TOŠK Tešanj
1.36

Mladost Doboj Kakanj creates 10% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 95 away

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.44
TOŠK Tešanj
1.21

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.51
TOŠK Tešanj
1.54

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par
TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

TOŠK Tešanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw
65%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj or TOŠK Tešanj
75%
Draw or TOŠK Tešanj
60%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
20%
TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
77%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
44%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
19%
TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
74%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
39%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
54%
TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

TOŠK Tešanj away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.44 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.49

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.21 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
40%
level
25%
TOŠK Tešanj scores more
35%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mladost Doboj Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2–4 TOŠK Tešanj

TOŠK Tešanj beat Mladost Doboj Kakanj 4-2 in 1st League - FBiH on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at MGM Farm Arena in Kakanj.