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Mladost Doboj Kakanj vs Rudar Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
FT
1 – 1
Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
11/6/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 13MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj44%
×Draw25%
Rudar Kakanj31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.50
Rudar Kakanj
1.21

Mladost Doboj Kakanj creates 24% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 68 away

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.44
Rudar Kakanj
0.90

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.51
Rudar Kakanj
1.56

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par
Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Rudar Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw
69%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Rudar Kakanj
75%
Draw or Rudar Kakanj
56%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
22%
Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
78%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
44%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
19%
Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
70%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
34%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
59%
Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

Rudar Kakanj away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.44 + Rudar Kakanj defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.50

Rudar Kakanj attack 0.90 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
44%
level
25%
Rudar Kakanj scores more
31%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mladost Doboj Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1–1 Rudar Kakanj

Mladost Doboj Kakanj and Rudar Kakanj drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on November 6, 2021.

The match was played at MGM Farm Arena in Kakanj.