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Mladost Doboj Kakanj vs Orašje — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
FT
0 – 2
Orašje
Orašje
11/20/20211st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 15MGM Farm Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj51%
×Draw23%
Orašje26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.80
Orašje
1.23

Mladost Doboj Kakanj creates 46% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 46 away

creates per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.44
Orašje
0.96

allows per match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj
1.51
Orašje
2.17

finishing

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par
Orašje+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Doboj Kakanj ↓

Orašje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Mladost Doboj Kakanj or draw
74%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj or Orašje
77%
Draw or Orašje
49%

Winning margin

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
28%
Orašje wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
83%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
54%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
27%
Orašje 1+ goals
71%
Orašje 2+ goals
35%
Orašje 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
66%
Orašje (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

Orašje away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.17 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 1.44 + Orašje defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.80

Orašje attack 0.96 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
51%
level
23%
Orašje scores more
26%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mladost Doboj Kakanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: Mladost Doboj Kakanj 0–2 Orašje

Orašje beat Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at MGM Farm Arena in Kakanj.