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Mladost DG vs Mornar — First League 2019

Mladost DG
Mladost DG
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Mornar
Mornar
4/26/2026First LeagueFirst League · Round 31DG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mladost DG38%
×Draw27%
Mornar35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost DG
1.27
Mornar
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 91 away

creates per match

Mladost DG
1.27
Mornar
1.03

allows per match

Mladost DG
1.41
Mornar
1.26

finishing

Mladost DG+0.00on par
Mornar+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost DG ↓

Mornar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mladost DG or draw
65%
Mladost DG or Mornar
73%
Draw or Mornar
62%

Winning margin

Mladost DG wins by 2+
17%
Mornar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Mladost DG 1+ goals
72%
Mladost DG 2+ goals
36%
Mladost DG 3+ goals
14%
Mornar 1+ goals
70%
Mornar 2+ goals
34%
Mornar 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mladost DG (draw refunded)
52%
Mornar (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost DG at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

Mornar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.26 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost DG attack 1.27 + Mornar defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Mornar attack 1.03 + Mladost DG defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mladost DG scores more
38%
level
27%
Mornar scores more
35%

Mladost DG at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mladost DG will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost DG vs Mornar

Mornar beat Mladost DG 2-1 in First League on April 26, 2026.

The match was played at DG Arena in Podgorica.