Mladost DG 1–3 Buducnost Podgorica: Result & Stats

Mladost DG

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Buducnost Podgorica

12/10/2023

First League · Round 19DG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Mladost DG28%

×Draw25%

Buducnost Podgorica47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladost DGExpected goals in this matchBuducnost Podgorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.58

Mladost DG

1.16

Buducnost Podgorica

1.58

Buducnost Podgorica creates 36% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 123 away

1.27

creates per match

1.75

1.41

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Mladost DG

1.27

Buducnost Podgorica

1.75

allows per match

Mladost DG

1.41

Buducnost Podgorica

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladost DG+0.00on par

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost DG ↓

Buducnost Podgorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Mladost DG or draw

53%

Mladost DG or Buducnost Podgorica

75%

Draw or Buducnost Podgorica

72%

Winning margin

Mladost DG wins by 2+

11%

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Mladost DG 1+ goals

69%

Mladost DG 2+ goals

32%

Mladost DG 3+ goals

11%

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

79%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

47%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Mladost DG (draw refunded)

37%

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost DG at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

Buducnost Podgorica away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost DG attack 1.27 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.75 + Mladost DG defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mladost DG scores more

28%

level

25%

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

47%

Buducnost Podgorica at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff