Buducnost Podgorica 1–2 Mladost DG: Result & Stats

Buducnost Podgorica

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Mladost DG

4/3/2024

First League · Round 28Stadion Pod Goricom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Buducnost Podgorica56%

×Draw23%

Mladost DG21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Buducnost PodgoricaExpected goals in this matchMladost DG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.02

Buducnost Podgorica

1.84

Mladost DG

1.02

Buducnost Podgorica creates 80% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 37 away

1.95

creates per match

1.11

0.93

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Buducnost Podgorica

1.95

Mladost DG

1.11

allows per match

Buducnost Podgorica

0.93

Mladost DG

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Buducnost Podgorica+0.00on par

Mladost DG+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Buducnost Podgorica ↓

Mladost DG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Buducnost Podgorica or draw

79%

Buducnost Podgorica or Mladost DG

77%

Draw or Mladost DG

44%

Winning margin

Buducnost Podgorica wins by 2+

32%

Mladost DG wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Buducnost Podgorica 1+ goals

84%

Buducnost Podgorica 2+ goals

55%

Buducnost Podgorica 3+ goals

28%

Mladost DG 1+ goals

64%

Mladost DG 2+ goals

27%

Mladost DG 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Buducnost Podgorica (draw refunded)

73%

Mladost DG (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Buducnost Podgorica at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.93 · 124 matches

Mladost DG away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.73 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Buducnost Podgorica attack 1.95 + Mladost DG defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.84

Mladost DG attack 1.11 + Buducnost Podgorica defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Buducnost Podgorica scores more

56%

level

23%

Mladost DG scores more

21%

Buducnost Podgorica at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Buducnost Podgorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff