Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mladost Bački Jarak vs Backa — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Mladost Bački Jarak
Mladost Bački Jarak
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Backa
Backa
10/11/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Round 9Stadion Mladost

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mladost Bački Jarak55%
×Draw23%
Backa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladost Bački Jarak
1.79
Backa
1.02

Mladost Bački Jarak creates 75% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 37 away

creates per match

Mladost Bački Jarak
1.87
Backa
0.78

allows per match

Mladost Bački Jarak
1.27
Backa
1.70

finishing

Mladost Bački Jarak+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladost Bački Jarak ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mladost Bački Jarak or draw
79%
Mladost Bački Jarak or Backa
77%
Draw or Backa
45%

Winning margin

Mladost Bački Jarak wins by 2+
31%
Backa wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mladost Bački Jarak 1+ goals
83%
Mladost Bački Jarak 2+ goals
53%
Mladost Bački Jarak 3+ goals
26%
Backa 1+ goals
64%
Backa 2+ goals
27%
Backa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mladost Bački Jarak (draw refunded)
72%
Backa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladost Bački Jarak at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.27 · 15 matches

Backa away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.70 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladost Bački Jarak attack 1.87 + Backa defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

Backa attack 0.78 + Mladost Bački Jarak defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mladost Bački Jarak scores more
55%
level
23%
Backa scores more
21%

Mladost Bački Jarak at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mladost Bački Jarak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mladost Bački Jarak vs Backa

Mladost Bački Jarak beat Backa 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Mladost in Bački Jarak.