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Mladi Radnik vs Vrelo Sport — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mladi Radnik
Mladi Radnik
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vrelo Sport
Vrelo Sport
10/7/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 8Stadion Vašarište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mladi Radnik52%
×Draw26%
Vrelo Sport23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladi Radnik
1.55
Vrelo Sport
0.93

Mladi Radnik creates 67% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mladi Radnik
1.38
Vrelo Sport
0.93

allows per match

Mladi Radnik
0.92
Vrelo Sport
1.73

finishing

Mladi Radnik+0.00on par
Vrelo Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladi Radnik ↓

Vrelo Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mladi Radnik or draw
77%
Mladi Radnik or Vrelo Sport
74%
Draw or Vrelo Sport
48%

Winning margin

Mladi Radnik wins by 2+
27%
Vrelo Sport wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mladi Radnik 1+ goals
79%
Mladi Radnik 2+ goals
46%
Mladi Radnik 3+ goals
20%
Vrelo Sport 1+ goals
61%
Vrelo Sport 2+ goals
24%
Vrelo Sport 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mladi Radnik (draw refunded)
70%
Vrelo Sport (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladi Radnik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 86 matches

Vrelo Sport away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladi Radnik attack 1.38 + Vrelo Sport defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

Vrelo Sport attack 0.93 + Mladi Radnik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mladi Radnik scores more
52%
level
26%
Vrelo Sport scores more
23%

Mladi Radnik at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mladi Radnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Mladi Radnik 3–0 Vrelo Sport

Mladi Radnik beat Vrelo Sport 3-0 in Srpska Liga - West on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vašarište in Požarevac.