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Mladi Radnik vs Šumadija Aranđelovac — Srpska Liga - West 2025

Mladi Radnik
Mladi Radnik
FT
4 – 1
Šumadija Aranđelovac
Šumadija Aranđelovac
9/5/2020Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 4Stadion Vašarište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mladi Radnik74%
×Draw18%
Šumadija Aranđelovac8%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladi Radnik
2.14
Šumadija Aranđelovac
0.56

Mladi Radnik creates 282% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

creates per match

Mladi Radnik
1.33
Šumadija Aranđelovac
0.62

allows per match

Mladi Radnik
0.50
Šumadija Aranđelovac
2.95

finishing

Mladi Radnik+0.00on par
Šumadija Aranđelovac+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladi Radnik ↓

Šumadija Aranđelovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Mladi Radnik or draw
92%
Mladi Radnik or Šumadija Aranđelovac
82%
Draw or Šumadija Aranđelovac
26%

Winning margin

Mladi Radnik wins by 2+
49%
Šumadija Aranđelovac wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Mladi Radnik 1+ goals
88%
Mladi Radnik 2+ goals
63%
Mladi Radnik 3+ goals
36%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 1+ goals
43%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 2+ goals
11%
Šumadija Aranđelovac 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mladi Radnik (draw refunded)
90%
Šumadija Aranđelovac (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladi Radnik at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Šumadija Aranđelovac away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladi Radnik attack 1.33 + Šumadija Aranđelovac defence 2.95 → ÷2 → 2.14

Šumadija Aranđelovac attack 0.62 + Mladi Radnik defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Mladi Radnik scores more
74%
level
18%
Šumadija Aranđelovac scores more
8%

Mladi Radnik at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Mladi Radnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Mladi Radnik 4–1 Šumadija Aranđelovac

Mladi Radnik beat Šumadija Aranđelovac 4-1 in Srpska Liga - West on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Vašarište in Požarevac.