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Mladi Radnik vs FK Zlatibor — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mladi Radnik
Mladi Radnik
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FK Zlatibor
FK Zlatibor
3/15/2025Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 17Stadion Vašarište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Mladi Radnik47%
×Draw29%
FK Zlatibor24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladi Radnik
1.28
FK Zlatibor
0.84

Mladi Radnik creates 52% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 44 away

creates per match

Mladi Radnik
1.38
FK Zlatibor
0.77

allows per match

Mladi Radnik
0.92
FK Zlatibor
1.18

finishing

Mladi Radnik+0.00on par
FK Zlatibor+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladi Radnik ↓

FK Zlatibor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mladi Radnik or draw
76%
Mladi Radnik or FK Zlatibor
71%
Draw or FK Zlatibor
53%

Winning margin

Mladi Radnik wins by 2+
21%
FK Zlatibor wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mladi Radnik 1+ goals
72%
Mladi Radnik 2+ goals
37%
Mladi Radnik 3+ goals
14%
FK Zlatibor 1+ goals
57%
FK Zlatibor 2+ goals
21%
FK Zlatibor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mladi Radnik (draw refunded)
66%
FK Zlatibor (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladi Radnik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 86 matches

FK Zlatibor away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladi Radnik attack 1.38 + FK Zlatibor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.28

FK Zlatibor attack 0.77 + Mladi Radnik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mladi Radnik scores more
47%
level
29%
FK Zlatibor scores more
24%

Mladi Radnik at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mladi Radnik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Mladi Radnik 0–1 FK Zlatibor

FK Zlatibor beat Mladi Radnik 1-0 in Srpska Liga - West on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Vašarište in Požarevac.