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Mladi Radnik vs FAP — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Mladi Radnik
Mladi Radnik
FT
2 – 1
FAP
FAP
11/25/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 15Stadion Vašarište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Mladi Radnik34%
×Draw28%
FAP38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladi Radnik
1.15
FAP
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 45 away

creates per match

Mladi Radnik
1.38
FAP
1.51

allows per match

Mladi Radnik
0.92
FAP
0.91

finishing

Mladi Radnik+0.00on par
FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladi Radnik ↓

FAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mladi Radnik or draw
62%
Mladi Radnik or FAP
72%
Draw or FAP
66%

Winning margin

Mladi Radnik wins by 2+
14%
FAP wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mladi Radnik 1+ goals
68%
Mladi Radnik 2+ goals
32%
Mladi Radnik 3+ goals
11%
FAP 1+ goals
70%
FAP 2+ goals
34%
FAP 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Mladi Radnik (draw refunded)
48%
FAP (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladi Radnik at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.92 · 86 matches

FAP away — creates 1.51, concedes 0.91 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladi Radnik attack 1.38 + FAP defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.15

FAP attack 1.51 + Mladi Radnik defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mladi Radnik scores more
34%
level
28%
FAP scores more
38%

FAP at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "FAP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Mladi Radnik 2–1 FAP

Mladi Radnik beat FAP 2-1 in Srpska Liga - West on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vašarište in Požarevac.