Mladenovac 0–1 Sindjelic Beograd: Result & Stats

Mladenovac

FT

0 – 1

Sindjelic Beograd

10/24/2020

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 13Stadion Selters

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Mladenovac37%

×Draw30%

Sindjelic Beograd33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MladenovacExpected goals in this matchSindjelic Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.99

Mladenovac

1.08

Sindjelic Beograd

0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 49 away

0.78

creates per match

0.86

1.11

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Mladenovac

0.78

Sindjelic Beograd

0.86

allows per match

Mladenovac

1.11

Sindjelic Beograd

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladenovac+0.00on par

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladenovac ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Mladenovac or draw

67%

Mladenovac or Sindjelic Beograd

70%

Draw or Sindjelic Beograd

63%

Winning margin

Mladenovac wins by 2+

15%

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mladenovac 1+ goals

66%

Mladenovac 2+ goals

29%

Mladenovac 3+ goals

10%

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals

63%

Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals

26%

Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Mladenovac (draw refunded)

53%

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladenovac at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 27 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladenovac attack 0.78 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + Mladenovac defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mladenovac scores more

37%

level

30%

Sindjelic Beograd scores more

33%

Mladenovac at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mladenovac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff