Mlada Boleslav 1–0 Táborsko: Result & Stats

Mlada Boleslav

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Táborsko

1/18/2023

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Lokotrans Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mlada Boleslav70%

×Draw17%

Táborsko14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mlada BoleslavExpected goals in this matchTáborsko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

1.11

Mlada Boleslav

2.65

Táborsko

1.11

Mlada Boleslav creates 139% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 24 away

2.88

creates per match

1.29

0.94

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Mlada Boleslav

2.88

Táborsko

1.29

allows per match

Mlada Boleslav

0.94

Táborsko

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mlada Boleslav+0.00on par

Táborsko+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mlada Boleslav ↓

Táborsko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Mlada Boleslav or draw

86%

Mlada Boleslav or Táborsko

83%

Draw or Táborsko

30%

Winning margin

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+

48%

Táborsko wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals

93%

Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals

74%

Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals

48%

Táborsko 1+ goals

67%

Táborsko 2+ goals

30%

Táborsko 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)

83%

Táborsko (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mlada Boleslav at home — creates 2.88, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Táborsko away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mlada Boleslav attack 2.88 + Táborsko defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.65

Táborsko attack 1.29 + Mlada Boleslav defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Mlada Boleslav scores more

70%

level

17%

Táborsko scores more

14%

Mlada Boleslav at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Mlada Boleslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff