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Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec — Czech Liga 2019

Mlada Boleslav
Mlada Boleslav
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Slovan Liberec
Slovan Liberec
12/5/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 8Lokotrans Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mlada Boleslav59%
×Draw22%
Slovan Liberec19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mlada Boleslav
1.89
Slovan Liberec
0.98

Mlada Boleslav creates 93% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Mlada Boleslav
1.84
Slovan Liberec
0.80

allows per match

Mlada Boleslav
1.16
Slovan Liberec
1.93

finishing

Mlada Boleslav-0.84scores less
Slovan Liberec+0.09on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mlada Boleslav ↓

Slovan Liberec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Mlada Boleslav or draw
81%
Mlada Boleslav or Slovan Liberec
78%
Draw or Slovan Liberec
41%

Winning margin

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+
34%
Slovan Liberec wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals
85%
Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals
56%
Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals
29%
Slovan Liberec 1+ goals
62%
Slovan Liberec 2+ goals
26%
Slovan Liberec 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)
75%
Slovan Liberec (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mlada Boleslav at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 7 matches

Slovan Liberec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.93 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.84 + Slovan Liberec defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.89

Slovan Liberec attack 0.80 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mlada Boleslav scores more
59%
level
22%
Slovan Liberec scores more
19%

Mlada Boleslav at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mlada Boleslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mlada Boleslav vs Slovan Liberec

Mlada Boleslav beat Slovan Liberec 1-0 in Czech Liga on December 5, 2024.

The match was played at Lokotrans Aréna in Mladá Boleslav.