Mlada Boleslav 0–1 Slovácko: Result & Stats

Mlada Boleslav

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Slovácko

12/16/2023

Czech Liga · Round 19Lokotrans Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mlada Boleslav59%

×Draw23%

Slovácko18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mlada BoleslavExpected goals in this matchSlovácko

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.83

Mlada Boleslav

1.75

Slovácko

0.83

Mlada Boleslav creates 111% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.84

creates per match

0.51

1.16

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Mlada Boleslav

1.84

Slovácko

0.51

allows per match

Mlada Boleslav

1.16

Slovácko

1.67

-0.84scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Mlada Boleslav-0.84scores less

Slovácko-0.01on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mlada Boleslav ↓

Slovácko →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Mlada Boleslav or draw

82%

Mlada Boleslav or Slovácko

77%

Draw or Slovácko

41%

Winning margin

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+

34%

Slovácko wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals

83%

Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals

52%

Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals

25%

Slovácko 1+ goals

56%

Slovácko 2+ goals

20%

Slovácko 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)

77%

Slovácko (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mlada Boleslav at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 7 matches

Slovácko away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.67 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.84 + Slovácko defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.75

Slovácko attack 0.51 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mlada Boleslav scores more

59%

level

23%

Slovácko scores more

18%

Mlada Boleslav at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mlada Boleslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff