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Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové — Czech Liga 2019

Mlada Boleslav
Mlada Boleslavadvanced
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Hradec Králové
Hradec Králové
5/31/2024Czech LigaCzech Liga · Conference League Play-offs - FinalLokotrans Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Mlada Boleslav62%
×Draw20%
Hradec Králové18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mlada Boleslav
2.09
Hradec Králové
1.01

Mlada Boleslav creates 107% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Mlada Boleslav
1.84
Hradec Králové
0.86

allows per match

Mlada Boleslav
1.16
Hradec Králové
2.34

finishing

Mlada Boleslav-0.84scores less
Hradec Králové-0.06on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mlada Boleslav ↓

Hradec Králové →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mlada Boleslav or draw
82%
Mlada Boleslav or Hradec Králové
80%
Draw or Hradec Králové
38%

Winning margin

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+
38%
Hradec Králové wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals
88%
Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals
62%
Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals
34%
Hradec Králové 1+ goals
64%
Hradec Králové 2+ goals
27%
Hradec Králové 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)
78%
Hradec Králové (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mlada Boleslav at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 7 matches

Hradec Králové away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.34 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.84 + Hradec Králové defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.09

Hradec Králové attack 0.86 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Mlada Boleslav scores more
62%
level
20%
Hradec Králové scores more
18%

Mlada Boleslav at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Mlada Boleslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Mlada Boleslav 3–1 Hradec Králové

Mlada Boleslav beat Hradec Králové 3-1 in Czech Liga on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Lokotrans Aréna in Mladá Boleslav.