Mlada Boleslav 1–2 Bohemians 1905: Result & Stats

Mlada Boleslav

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Bohemians 1905

L. Mašek 79'

D. Pleštil 18'

N. Okeke 13'

3/15/2025

Czech Liga · Round 26Lokotrans Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mlada Boleslav49%

×Draw24%

Bohemians 190527%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mlada BoleslavExpected goals in this matchBohemians 1905

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.19

Mlada Boleslav

1.70

Bohemians 1905

1.19

Mlada Boleslav creates 43% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 14 away

1.84

creates per match

1.21

1.16

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Mlada Boleslav

1.84

Bohemians 1905

1.21

allows per match

Mlada Boleslav

1.16

Bohemians 1905

1.55

-0.84scores less than expected

finishing

-0.57scores less than expected

finishing

Mlada Boleslav-0.84scores less

Bohemians 1905-0.57scores less

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mlada Boleslav ↓

Bohemians 1905 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mlada Boleslav or draw

73%

Mlada Boleslav or Bohemians 1905

76%

Draw or Bohemians 1905

51%

Winning margin

Mlada Boleslav wins by 2+

26%

Bohemians 1905 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mlada Boleslav 1+ goals

82%

Mlada Boleslav 2+ goals

51%

Mlada Boleslav 3+ goals

24%

Bohemians 1905 1+ goals

70%

Bohemians 1905 2+ goals

33%

Bohemians 1905 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Mlada Boleslav (draw refunded)

65%

Bohemians 1905 (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mlada Boleslav at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 7 matches

Bohemians 1905 away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.55 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mlada Boleslav attack 1.84 + Bohemians 1905 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.70

Bohemians 1905 attack 1.21 + Mlada Boleslav defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mlada Boleslav scores more

49%

level

24%

Bohemians 1905 scores more

27%

Mlada Boleslav at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mlada Boleslav will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

M. Reichl

Bohemians 1905 · G

8.5

Match Events

13'

N. Okeke

18'

D. Pleštil

32'

Tomas KralGoal cancelled

46'

46'

48'

63'

63'

M. Ristovski← J. Matoušek

72'

R. Hrubý← N. Okeke

73'

Solomon John

79'

L. Mašek

88'

P. Kareem← J. Kovařík

88'

A. Kadlec← V. Drchal

89'

D. Mareček← V. Hora

90+6'

Michal Reichl

90+5'

M. Pulkrab← N. Penner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MladaBohemians

Overview

64%Possession36%

24Total Shots11

2.96Expected Goals (xG)0.94

12Corners2

14Fouls15

Shots

24Total Shots11

8On Target4

7Off Target5

9Blocked2

20Inside Box8

4Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

462Total Passes271

368Accurate Passes189

80%Pass Accuracy70%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

Discipline

14Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides1