Mladá Boleslav U19 2–3 Zbrojovka Brno U19

Mladá Boleslav U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Zbrojovka Brno U19

5/4/2024

1. Liga U19 · Round 259. Základní Škola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Mladá Boleslav U1947%

×Draw22%

Zbrojovka Brno U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladá Boleslav U19Expected goals in this matchZbrojovka Brno U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.56

Mladá Boleslav U19

1.94

Zbrojovka Brno U19

1.56

Mladá Boleslav U19 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 79 away

1.97

creates per match

1.62

1.49

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Mladá Boleslav U19

1.97

Zbrojovka Brno U19

1.62

allows per match

Mladá Boleslav U19

1.49

Zbrojovka Brno U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par

Zbrojovka Brno U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladá Boleslav U19 ↓

Zbrojovka Brno U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Mladá Boleslav U19 or draw

69%

Mladá Boleslav U19 or Zbrojovka Brno U19

78%

Draw or Zbrojovka Brno U19

53%

Winning margin

Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+

26%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals

86%

Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals

58%

Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals

30%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 1+ goals

79%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 2+ goals

46%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladá Boleslav U19 at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.49 · 78 matches

Zbrojovka Brno U19 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.91 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.97 + Zbrojovka Brno U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.94

Zbrojovka Brno U19 attack 1.62 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more

47%

level

22%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 scores more

31%

Mladá Boleslav U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mladá Boleslav U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff