Mladá Boleslav U19 2–1 Jindřichův Hradec

Mladá Boleslav U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Jindřichův Hradec

5/24/2025

1. Liga U19 · Round 279. Základní Škola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Mladá Boleslav U1937%

×Draw22%

Jindřichův Hradec41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mladá Boleslav U19Expected goals in this matchJindřichův Hradec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.81

Mladá Boleslav U19

1.71

Jindřichův Hradec

1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 64 away

1.97

creates per match

2.13

1.49

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Mladá Boleslav U19

1.97

Jindřichův Hradec

2.13

allows per match

Mladá Boleslav U19

1.49

Jindřichův Hradec

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladá Boleslav U19 ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Mladá Boleslav U19 or draw

59%

Mladá Boleslav U19 or Jindřichův Hradec

78%

Draw or Jindřichův Hradec

63%

Winning margin

Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+

19%

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals

82%

Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals

51%

Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals

24%

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals

84%

Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals

54%

Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)

47%

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladá Boleslav U19 at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.49 · 78 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.44 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.97 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.71

Jindřichův Hradec attack 2.13 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more

37%

level

22%

Jindřichův Hradec scores more

41%

Jindřichův Hradec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff