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Mladá Boleslav U19 vs Hradec Králové U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Mladá Boleslav U19
Mladá Boleslav U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hradec Králové U19
Hradec Králové U19
3/12/20221. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 16UMT 9.ŽŠ Pastelka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mladá Boleslav U1950%
×Draw22%
Hradec Králové U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mladá Boleslav U19
2.02
Hradec Králové U19
1.46

Mladá Boleslav U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 48 away

creates per match

Mladá Boleslav U19
1.97
Hradec Králové U19
1.44

allows per match

Mladá Boleslav U19
1.49
Hradec Králové U19
2.06

finishing

Mladá Boleslav U19+0.00on par
Hradec Králové U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mladá Boleslav U19 ↓

Hradec Králové U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Mladá Boleslav U19 or draw
72%
Mladá Boleslav U19 or Hradec Králové U19
78%
Draw or Hradec Králové U19
50%

Winning margin

Mladá Boleslav U19 wins by 2+
29%
Hradec Králové U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mladá Boleslav U19 1+ goals
87%
Mladá Boleslav U19 2+ goals
60%
Mladá Boleslav U19 3+ goals
33%
Hradec Králové U19 1+ goals
77%
Hradec Králové U19 2+ goals
43%
Hradec Králové U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Mladá Boleslav U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Hradec Králové U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mladá Boleslav U19 at home — creates 1.97, concedes 1.49 · 78 matches

Hradec Králové U19 away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.06 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mladá Boleslav U19 attack 1.97 + Hradec Králové U19 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.02

Hradec Králové U19 attack 1.44 + Mladá Boleslav U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mladá Boleslav U19 scores more
50%
level
22%
Hradec Králové U19 scores more
28%

Mladá Boleslav U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mladá Boleslav U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga U19: Mladá Boleslav U19 1–0 Hradec Králové U19

Mladá Boleslav U19 beat Hradec Králové U19 1-0 in 1. Liga U19 on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at UMT 9.ŽŠ Pastelka in Mladá Boleslav.