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ML Vitebsk vs Slonim — Coppa 2019

ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebskadvanced
FT
8 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
Slonim
Slonim
12/4/2025CoppaCoppa · Round of 16Vitebsk CSK

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

ML Vitebsk45%
×Draw19%
Slonim36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ML Vitebsk
2.49
Slonim
2.24

ML Vitebsk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

ML Vitebsk
2.83
Slonim
3.14

allows per match

ML Vitebsk
1.33
Slonim
2.14

finishing

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par
Slonim+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ML Vitebsk ↓

Slonim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

ML Vitebsk or draw
64%
ML Vitebsk or Slonim
81%
Draw or Slonim
55%

Winning margin

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
27%
Slonim wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
92%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
71%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
45%
Slonim 1+ goals
89%
Slonim 2+ goals
65%
Slonim 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
55%
Slonim (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ML Vitebsk at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Slonim away — creates 3.14, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ML Vitebsk attack 2.83 + Slonim defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.49

Slonim attack 3.14 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

ML Vitebsk scores more
45%
level
19%
Slonim scores more
36%

ML Vitebsk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coppa: ML Vitebsk 8–1 Slonim

ML Vitebsk beat Slonim 8-1 in Coppa on December 4, 2025.

The match was played at Vitebsk CSK in Vitebsk.