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ML Vitebsk vs Osipovichy — 1. Division 2018

ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Osipovichy
Osipovichy
9/10/20231. Division1. Division · Round 23CSK Vitebskiy Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

ML Vitebsk65%
×Draw18%
Osipovichy16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ML Vitebsk
2.38
Osipovichy
1.10

ML Vitebsk creates 116% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 51 away

creates per match

ML Vitebsk
2.18
Osipovichy
1.08

allows per match

ML Vitebsk
1.11
Osipovichy
2.57

finishing

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par
Osipovichy+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ML Vitebsk ↓

Osipovichy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

ML Vitebsk or draw
84%
ML Vitebsk or Osipovichy
82%
Draw or Osipovichy
35%

Winning margin

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
43%
Osipovichy wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
91%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
68%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
42%
Osipovichy 1+ goals
67%
Osipovichy 2+ goals
30%
Osipovichy 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
80%
Osipovichy (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ML Vitebsk at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

Osipovichy away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.57 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ML Vitebsk attack 2.18 + Osipovichy defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.38

Osipovichy attack 1.08 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

ML Vitebsk scores more
65%
level
18%
Osipovichy scores more
16%

ML Vitebsk at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ML Vitebsk vs Osipovichy

ML Vitebsk beat Osipovichy 2-1 in 1. Division on September 10, 2023.

The match was played at CSK Vitebskiy Iskusstvennoe pole in Vitebsk.