ML Vitebsk 0–2 Orsha: Result & Stats | 1. Division

ML Vitebsk

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Orsha

5/14/2023

1. Division · Round 7CSK Vitebskiy Iskusstvennoe pole

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

ML Vitebsk58%

×Draw20%

Orsha21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ML VitebskExpected goals in this matchOrsha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.24

ML Vitebsk

2.17

Orsha

1.24

ML Vitebsk creates 75% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 128 away

2.18

creates per match

1.36

1.11

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

ML Vitebsk

2.18

Orsha

1.36

allows per match

ML Vitebsk

1.11

Orsha

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par

Orsha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ML Vitebsk ↓

Orsha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

ML Vitebsk or draw

79%

ML Vitebsk or Orsha

80%

Draw or Orsha

42%

Winning margin

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+

36%

Orsha wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals

89%

ML Vitebsk 2+ goals

64%

ML Vitebsk 3+ goals

36%

Orsha 1+ goals

71%

Orsha 2+ goals

35%

Orsha 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)

73%

Orsha (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ML Vitebsk at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

Orsha away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.17 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ML Vitebsk attack 2.18 + Orsha defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.17

Orsha attack 1.36 + ML Vitebsk defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ML Vitebsk scores more

58%

level

20%

Orsha scores more

21%

ML Vitebsk at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff