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ML Vitebsk vs FC Isloch Minsk R. — Friendlies Clubs 2026

ML Vitebsk
ML Vitebsk
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FC Isloch Minsk R.
FC Isloch Minsk R.
2/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

ML Vitebsk69%
×Draw19%
FC Isloch Minsk R.12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ML Vitebsk
2.20
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.80

ML Vitebsk creates 175% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

ML Vitebsk
2.80
FC Isloch Minsk R.
0.80

allows per match

ML Vitebsk
0.80
FC Isloch Minsk R.
1.60

finishing

ML Vitebsk+0.00on par
FC Isloch Minsk R.+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ML Vitebsk ↓

FC Isloch Minsk R. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

ML Vitebsk or draw
88%
ML Vitebsk or FC Isloch Minsk R.
81%
Draw or FC Isloch Minsk R.
31%

Winning margin

ML Vitebsk wins by 2+
45%
FC Isloch Minsk R. wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

ML Vitebsk 1+ goals
89%
ML Vitebsk 2+ goals
64%
ML Vitebsk 3+ goals
37%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 1+ goals
55%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 2+ goals
19%
FC Isloch Minsk R. 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

ML Vitebsk (draw refunded)
85%
FC Isloch Minsk R. (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ML Vitebsk at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

FC Isloch Minsk R. away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ML Vitebsk attack 2.80 + FC Isloch Minsk R. defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.20

FC Isloch Minsk R. attack 0.80 + ML Vitebsk defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

ML Vitebsk scores more
69%
level
19%
FC Isloch Minsk R. scores more
12%

ML Vitebsk at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "ML Vitebsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: ML Vitebsk vs FC Isloch Minsk R.

ML Vitebsk beat FC Isloch Minsk R. 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on February 14, 2026.