MK-United 2–0 PK-35 Vantaa II: Result & Stats

MK-United

2 – 0

PK-35 Vantaa II

2/28/2024

Suomen Cup · Preliminary RoundMyyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

MK-United6%

×Draw10%

PK-35 Vantaa II84%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MK-UnitedExpected goals in this matchPK-35 Vantaa II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

3.80

MK-United

1.03

PK-35 Vantaa II

3.80

PK-35 Vantaa II creates 269% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

1.67

creates per match

5.60

2.00

allows per match

0.40

creates per match

MK-United

1.67

PK-35 Vantaa II

5.60

allows per match

MK-United

2.00

PK-35 Vantaa II

0.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

MK-United+0.00on par

PK-35 Vantaa II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over85
Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MK-United ↓

PK-35 Vantaa II →

0–01%

0–13%

0–26%

0–38%

0–48%

1–01%

1–13%

1–27%

1–38%

1–48%

2–00%

2–12%

2–23%

2–34%

2–44%

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

85%15%3.5

68%32%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

MK-United or draw

16%

MK-United or PK-35 Vantaa II

90%

Draw or PK-35 Vantaa II

94%

Winning margin

MK-United wins by 2+

PK-35 Vantaa II wins by 2+

68%

Team goals

MK-United 1+ goals

64%

MK-United 2+ goals

28%

MK-United 3+ goals

PK-35 Vantaa II 1+ goals

98%

PK-35 Vantaa II 2+ goals

88%

PK-35 Vantaa II 3+ goals

70%

Draw no bet

MK-United (draw refunded)

PK-35 Vantaa II (draw refunded)

93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

MK-United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

PK-35 Vantaa II away — creates 5.60, concedes 0.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

MK-United attack 1.67 + PK-35 Vantaa II defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 1.03

PK-35 Vantaa II attack 5.60 + MK-United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 84%?"

MK-United scores more

level

10%

PK-35 Vantaa II scores more

84%

PK-35 Vantaa II at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "PK-35 Vantaa II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff