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MK-United vs FC Espoo — Suomen Cup 2018

MK-United
MK-United
FT
2 – 3
FC Espoo
FC Espoo
3/2/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundMyyrmäki-halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

MK-United11%
×Draw13%
FC Espoo76%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MK-United
1.33
FC Espoo
3.50

FC Espoo creates 163% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

MK-United
1.67
FC Espoo
5.00

allows per match

MK-United
2.00
FC Espoo
1.00

finishing

MK-United+0.00on par
FC Espoo+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MK-United ↓

FC Espoo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 77% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

MK-United or draw
24%
MK-United or FC Espoo
87%
Draw or FC Espoo
89%

Winning margin

MK-United wins by 2+
4%
FC Espoo wins by 2+
58%

Team goals

MK-United 1+ goals
74%
MK-United 2+ goals
38%
MK-United 3+ goals
15%
FC Espoo 1+ goals
97%
FC Espoo 2+ goals
85%
FC Espoo 3+ goals
66%

Draw no bet

MK-United (draw refunded)
13%
FC Espoo (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MK-United at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

FC Espoo away — creates 5.00, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MK-United attack 1.67 + FC Espoo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

FC Espoo attack 5.00 + MK-United defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

MK-United scores more
11%
level
13%
FC Espoo scores more
76%

FC Espoo at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "FC Espoo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: MK-United 2–3 FC Espoo

FC Espoo beat MK-United 3-2 in Suomen Cup on March 2, 2025.

The match was played at Myyrmäki-halli in Vantaa.