Mjondalen 3–0 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Mjondalen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Stromsgodset

S. Aasmundsen 84'

F. Brustad 58'

O. Sveen 4'

11/7/2020

Eliteserien · Round 24Consto Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mjondalen46%

×Draw25%

Stromsgodset29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MjondalenExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.23

Mjondalen

1.60

Stromsgodset

1.23

Mjondalen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 105 away

1.32

creates per match

1.07

1.39

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Mjondalen

1.32

Stromsgodset

1.07

allows per match

Mjondalen

1.39

Stromsgodset

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjondalen+0.00on par

Stromsgodset+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjondalen ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mjondalen or draw

71%

Mjondalen or Stromsgodset

75%

Draw or Stromsgodset

54%

Winning margin

Mjondalen wins by 2+

24%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Mjondalen 1+ goals

80%

Mjondalen 2+ goals

47%

Mjondalen 3+ goals

22%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

71%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

35%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mjondalen (draw refunded)

61%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjondalen at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.39 · 31 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.89 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjondalen attack 1.32 + Stromsgodset defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.60

Stromsgodset attack 1.07 + Mjondalen defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mjondalen scores more

46%

level

25%

Stromsgodset scores more

29%

Mjondalen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mjondalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

S. Makani

Mjondalen · G

7.6

Match Events

4'

O. Sveen

6'

Martin Ovenstad

26'

Lars Christopher Vilsvik

46'

H. Stengel← I. Jack

46'

M. Mawa← K. Tokstad

58'

F. Brustad↳ C. Gauseth

62'

S. Ibrahim← F. Brustad

68'

H. Stenevik← N. Mickelson

73'

J. Solberg← M. Ovenstad

73'

S. Aasmundsen← C. Gauseth

73'

W. Sell← S. Eriksen

73'

T. Gulliksen← M. Maigaard

80'

A. Hellum← S. Liseth

84'

S. Aasmundsen↳ S. Ibrahim

87'

Joackim Solberg

87'

Herman Stengel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MjondalenStromsgodset

Overview

36%Possession64%

14Total Shots16

2Corners8

9Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots16

3On Target5

8Off Target5

3Blocked6

8Inside Box9

6Outside Box7

Passing

36%Possession64%

290Total Passes484

178Accurate Passes355

61%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls18

2Yellow Cards2

0Offsides2