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Mjondalen vs Nest-Sotra — 1. Division 2018

Mjondalen
Mjondalen
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Nest-Sotra
Nest-Sotra
6/26/20181. Division1. Division · Round 14Isachsen stadion (Mjøndalen)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mjondalen40%
×Draw25%
Nest-Sotra35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjondalen
1.45
Nest-Sotra
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 31 away

creates per match

Mjondalen
1.45
Nest-Sotra
1.23

allows per match

Mjondalen
1.45
Nest-Sotra
1.45

finishing

Mjondalen+0.00on par
Nest-Sotra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjondalen ↓

Nest-Sotra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Mjondalen or draw
65%
Mjondalen or Nest-Sotra
75%
Draw or Nest-Sotra
60%

Winning margin

Mjondalen wins by 2+
19%
Nest-Sotra wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Mjondalen 1+ goals
77%
Mjondalen 2+ goals
42%
Mjondalen 3+ goals
18%
Nest-Sotra 1+ goals
74%
Nest-Sotra 2+ goals
39%
Nest-Sotra 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Mjondalen (draw refunded)
53%
Nest-Sotra (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjondalen at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

Nest-Sotra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjondalen attack 1.45 + Nest-Sotra defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.45

Nest-Sotra attack 1.23 + Mjondalen defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mjondalen scores more
40%
level
25%
Nest-Sotra scores more
35%

Mjondalen at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mjondalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Mjondalen 3–3 Nest-Sotra

Mjondalen and Nest-Sotra drew 3-3 in 1. Division on June 26, 2018.

The match was played at Isachsen stadion (Mjøndalen).