Mjölby 10–1 Tyresö: Result & Stats

Mjölby

FT

10 – 1

Tyresö

10/23/2021

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 30Vifolkavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Mjölby59%

×Draw19%

Tyresö23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MjölbyExpected goals in this matchTyresö

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.58

Mjölby

2.58

Tyresö

1.58

Mjölby creates 63% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 33 away

2.02

creates per match

1.21

1.95

allows per match

3.15

creates per match

Mjölby

2.02

Tyresö

1.21

allows per match

Mjölby

1.95

Tyresö

3.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjölby+0.00on par

Tyresö+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjölby ↓

Tyresö →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Mjölby or draw

77%

Mjölby or Tyresö

81%

Draw or Tyresö

41%

Winning margin

Mjölby wins by 2+

38%

Tyresö wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mjölby 1+ goals

92%

Mjölby 2+ goals

72%

Mjölby 3+ goals

47%

Tyresö 1+ goals

79%

Tyresö 2+ goals

47%

Tyresö 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Mjölby (draw refunded)

72%

Tyresö (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjölby at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

Tyresö away — creates 1.21, concedes 3.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjölby attack 2.02 + Tyresö defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.58

Tyresö attack 1.21 + Mjölby defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mjölby scores more

59%

level

19%

Tyresö scores more

23%

Mjölby at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mjölby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff