Mjölby 1–3 Syrianska FC: Result & Stats

Mjölby

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Syrianska FC

6/30/2024

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 14Vifolkavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Mjölby41%

×Draw21%

Syrianska FC37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MjölbyExpected goals in this matchSyrianska FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.84

Mjölby

1.94

Syrianska FC

1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 73 away

2.02

creates per match

1.73

1.95

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Mjölby

2.02

Syrianska FC

1.73

allows per match

Mjölby

1.95

Syrianska FC

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjölby+0.00on par

Syrianska FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjölby ↓

Syrianska FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Mjölby or draw

63%

Mjölby or Syrianska FC

79%

Draw or Syrianska FC

59%

Winning margin

Mjölby wins by 2+

22%

Syrianska FC wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Mjölby 1+ goals

86%

Mjölby 2+ goals

58%

Mjölby 3+ goals

30%

Syrianska FC 1+ goals

84%

Syrianska FC 2+ goals

55%

Syrianska FC 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Mjölby (draw refunded)

52%

Syrianska FC (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjölby at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

Syrianska FC away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.86 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjölby attack 2.02 + Syrianska FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.94

Syrianska FC attack 1.73 + Mjölby defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Mjölby scores more

41%

level

21%

Syrianska FC scores more

37%

Mjölby at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Mjölby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff