Mjölby 3–4 IFK Eskilstuna: Result & Stats

Mjölby

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

IFK Eskilstuna

5/12/2024

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 7Vifolkavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Mjölby50%

×Draw21%

IFK Eskilstuna30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MjölbyExpected goals in this matchIFK Eskilstuna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.22

1.69

Mjölby

2.22

IFK Eskilstuna

1.69

Mjölby creates 31% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 60 away

2.02

creates per match

1.43

1.95

allows per match

2.42

creates per match

Mjölby

2.02

IFK Eskilstuna

1.43

allows per match

Mjölby

1.95

IFK Eskilstuna

2.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjölby+0.00on par

IFK Eskilstuna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjölby ↓

IFK Eskilstuna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Mjölby or draw

70%

Mjölby or IFK Eskilstuna

79%

Draw or IFK Eskilstuna

50%

Winning margin

Mjölby wins by 2+

30%

IFK Eskilstuna wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Mjölby 1+ goals

89%

Mjölby 2+ goals

65%

Mjölby 3+ goals

38%

IFK Eskilstuna 1+ goals

82%

IFK Eskilstuna 2+ goals

50%

IFK Eskilstuna 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Mjölby (draw refunded)

63%

IFK Eskilstuna (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjölby at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.95 · 40 matches

IFK Eskilstuna away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.42 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjölby attack 2.02 + IFK Eskilstuna defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 2.22

IFK Eskilstuna attack 1.43 + Mjölby defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mjölby scores more

50%

level

21%

IFK Eskilstuna scores more

30%

Mjölby at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mjölby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff