Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mjölby vs Grebbestad — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Mjölby
Mjölby
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Grebbestad
Grebbestad
10/2/2022Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 24Vifolkavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mjölby47%
×Draw23%
Grebbestad30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjölby
1.76
Grebbestad
1.37

Mjölby creates 28% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 92 away

creates per match

Mjölby
1.54
Grebbestad
1.51

allows per match

Mjölby
1.23
Grebbestad
1.98

finishing

Mjölby+0.00on par
Grebbestad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjölby ↓

Grebbestad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Mjölby or draw
70%
Mjölby or Grebbestad
77%
Draw or Grebbestad
53%

Winning margin

Mjölby wins by 2+
25%
Grebbestad wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Mjölby 1+ goals
83%
Mjölby 2+ goals
52%
Mjölby 3+ goals
26%
Grebbestad 1+ goals
75%
Grebbestad 2+ goals
40%
Grebbestad 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Mjölby (draw refunded)
61%
Grebbestad (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjölby at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Grebbestad away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.98 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjölby attack 1.54 + Grebbestad defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.76

Grebbestad attack 1.51 + Mjölby defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Mjölby scores more
47%
level
23%
Grebbestad scores more
30%

Mjölby at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Mjölby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Norra Götaland: Mjölby 4–2 Grebbestad

Mjölby beat Grebbestad 4-2 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on October 2, 2022.

The match was played at Vifolkavallen in Mjölby.