Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK — Allsvenskan 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 21+ matches
Mjallby AIF49%
Vasteras SK FK26%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Mjallby AIF creates 48% more chances
Season form · 95 home / 21 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under54
- Over46
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Mjallby AIF ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches
Vasteras SK FK away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 21 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Mjallby AIF attack 1.45 + Vasteras SK FK defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.51
Vasteras SK FK attack 1.00 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Mjallby AIF at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Vasteras SK FK substitutes
Head to Head
Malmo FF
IF elfsborg
BK Hacken
Djurgardens IFMjallby AIF
IFK Norrkoping
Orebro SK
Hammarby FF
AIK stockholm
Sirius
Varbergs BoIS FC
IFK Goteborg
Ostersunds FK
kalmar FF
Helsingborg
falkenbergs FFIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Mjallby AIF host Vasteras SK FK on Saturday, 5 October 2024 at 13:00. The match is part of the Allsvenskan 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: Mjallby AIF vs Vasteras SK FK
Mjallby AIF beat Vasteras SK FK 2-1 in Allsvenskan on October 5, 2024.
Goals: J. Bergström (29'), I. Jönsson (38'), T. Pettersson (88').
Mjallby AIF controlled possession (65%) and registered 17 shots to 10.
The match was played at Strandvallen in Sölvesborg.