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Mjallby AIF vs Varbergs BoIS FC — Allsvenskan 2026

Mjallby AIF
Mjallby AIF
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Varbergs BoIS FC
Varbergs BoIS FC
A. Brorsson 56'
A. Johansson 10'
A. Al Hamlawi 66'
Ö. Pektas 60'
4/3/2023AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 1Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mjallby AIF57%
×Draw21%
Varbergs BoIS FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjallby AIF
2.04
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.17

Mjallby AIF creates 74% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 7 away

creates per match

Mjallby AIF
1.61
Varbergs BoIS FC
1.25

allows per match

Mjallby AIF
1.08
Varbergs BoIS FC
2.48

finishing

Mjallby AIF-0.03on par
Varbergs BoIS FC+0.18scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Varbergs BoIS FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw
79%
Mjallby AIF or Varbergs BoIS FC
79%
Draw or Varbergs BoIS FC
43%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+
34%
Varbergs BoIS FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals
87%
Mjallby AIF 2+ goals
60%
Mjallby AIF 3+ goals
33%
Varbergs BoIS FC 1+ goals
69%
Varbergs BoIS FC 2+ goals
33%
Varbergs BoIS FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)
73%
Varbergs BoIS FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.08 · 19 matches

Varbergs BoIS FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.48 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 1.61 + Varbergs BoIS FC defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.04

Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.25 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more
57%
level
21%
Varbergs BoIS FC scores more
21%

Mjallby AIF at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
A. Al HamlawiVarbergs BoIS FCVarbergs BoIS FC · F
8.0

Match Events

10'
A. Johansson
19'
Vilmer Ronnberg
26'
Noah Eile
45'
Ismet Lushaku
56'
A. Brorsson
60'
Ö. Pektas↳ Vinícius Nogueira
65'
Y. El Ouatki← R. Tranberg
65'
O. Alfonsi← Ö. Pektas
65'
V. Karlsson← V. Rönnberg
65'
A. Al Hamlawi← I. Lushaku
66'
A. Al Hamlawi↳ N. Dahlström
68'
M. Fenger← H. Johansson
78'
Arvid Brorsson
80'
Victor Karlsson
81'
M. Moro← A. Brorsson
90+1'
H. Zackrisson← O. Silverholt

Possession

45%Mjallby

Shots

26Mjallby

Pass accuracy

48%Mjallby

Statistics

MjallbyVarbergs
Overview
45%Possession55%
26Total Shots12
8Corners5
13Fouls18
Shots
26Total Shots12
6On Target3
11Off Target4
9Blocked5
22Inside Box7
4Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
342Total Passes409
248Accurate Passes326
73%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls18
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Allsvenskan: Mjallby AIF 2–2 Varbergs BoIS FC

Mjallby AIF and Varbergs BoIS FC drew 2-2 in Allsvenskan on April 3, 2023.

Goals: A. Johansson (10'), A. Brorsson (56'), Ö. Pektas (60'), A. Al Hamlawi (66').

Varbergs BoIS FC controlled possession (55%) and registered 12 shots to 26.

The match was played at Strandvallen in Sölvesborg.