Mjallby AIF 3–0 IF Brommapojkarna: Result & Stats

Mjallby AIF

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

IF Brommapojkarna

4/18/2026

Allsvenskan · Round 3Strandvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Mjallby AIF45%

×Draw25%

IF Brommapojkarna30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mjallby AIFExpected goals in this matchIF Brommapojkarna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.25

Mjallby AIF

1.60

IF Brommapojkarna

1.25

Mjallby AIF creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.59

creates per match

1.29

1.20

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Mjallby AIF

1.59

IF Brommapojkarna

1.29

allows per match

Mjallby AIF

1.20

IF Brommapojkarna

1.61

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

+0.71scores more than expected

finishing

Mjallby AIF-0.34scores less

IF Brommapojkarna+0.71scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

IF Brommapojkarna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw

70%

Mjallby AIF or IF Brommapojkarna

75%

Draw or IF Brommapojkarna

55%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

23%

IF Brommapojkarna wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

80%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

47%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

22%

IF Brommapojkarna 1+ goals

71%

IF Brommapojkarna 2+ goals

36%

IF Brommapojkarna 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

60%

IF Brommapojkarna (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.20 · 8 matches

IF Brommapojkarna away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 1.59 + IF Brommapojkarna defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.60

IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.29 + Mjallby AIF defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more

45%

level

25%

IF Brommapojkarna scores more

30%

Mjallby AIF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff