Mjallby AIF 0–0 Akropolis: Result & Stats

Mjallby AIF

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Akropolis

2/20/2022

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 1Strandvallen Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Mjallby AIF38%

×Draw25%

Akropolis37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mjallby AIFExpected goals in this matchAkropolis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.41

Mjallby AIF

1.42

Akropolis

1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

0.81

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Mjallby AIF

2.00

Akropolis

2.00

allows per match

Mjallby AIF

0.81

Akropolis

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mjallby AIF+0.00on par

Akropolis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjallby AIF ↓

Akropolis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Mjallby AIF or draw

63%

Mjallby AIF or Akropolis

75%

Draw or Akropolis

62%

Winning margin

Mjallby AIF wins by 2+

18%

Akropolis wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Mjallby AIF 1+ goals

76%

Mjallby AIF 2+ goals

41%

Mjallby AIF 3+ goals

17%

Akropolis 1+ goals

76%

Akropolis 2+ goals

41%

Akropolis 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Mjallby AIF (draw refunded)

50%

Akropolis (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjallby AIF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.81 · 21 matches

Akropolis away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjallby AIF attack 2.00 + Akropolis defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Akropolis attack 2.00 + Mjallby AIF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mjallby AIF scores more

38%

level

25%

Akropolis scores more

37%

Mjallby AIF at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mjallby AIF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff