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Mjøndalen II vs Vindbjart — 3. Division - Girone 4 2020

Mjøndalen II
Mjøndalen II
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Vindbjart
Vindbjart
6/11/20233. Division - Girone 43. Division - Girone 4 · Group 4 - 9Consto Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Mjøndalen II40%
×Draw21%
Vindbjart39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mjøndalen II
1.98
Vindbjart
1.97

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

creates per match

Mjøndalen II
2.23
Vindbjart
1.56

allows per match

Mjøndalen II
2.38
Vindbjart
1.72

finishing

Mjøndalen II+0.00on par
Vindbjart+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mjøndalen II ↓

Vindbjart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Mjøndalen II or draw
61%
Mjøndalen II or Vindbjart
79%
Draw or Vindbjart
60%

Winning margin

Mjøndalen II wins by 2+
22%
Vindbjart wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Mjøndalen II 1+ goals
86%
Mjøndalen II 2+ goals
59%
Mjøndalen II 3+ goals
31%
Vindbjart 1+ goals
86%
Vindbjart 2+ goals
58%
Vindbjart 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Mjøndalen II (draw refunded)
50%
Vindbjart (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mjøndalen II at home — creates 2.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

Vindbjart away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.72 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mjøndalen II attack 2.23 + Vindbjart defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.98

Vindbjart attack 1.56 + Mjøndalen II defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mjøndalen II scores more
40%
level
21%
Vindbjart scores more
39%

Mjøndalen II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mjøndalen II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mjøndalen II vs Vindbjart

Mjøndalen II beat Vindbjart 3-2 in 3. Division - Girone 4 on June 11, 2023.

The match was played at Consto Arena in Mjøndalen.